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“Don’t worry about it” — Van Allen A to burn up tonight

March 11, 2026
MThomas

No problem: it’s just a 1,300 pound satellite falling down from the sky and disintegrating into random pieces everywhere all at once…

“For the average person, it will be a nice light in the sky if you get lucky and, otherwise, don’t worry about it,” Dr. McDowell said. “We have much more scary re-entries that happen. Occasionally, there is a 20-ton Chinese rocket stage that comes down. Those are much scarier for me.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/science/space/nasa-satellite-earth-re-entry.html?unlocked_article_code=1.SVA.dk5d.09lMgapDCbYq&smid=nytcore-ios-share

OK, granted that the odds are 1 in 4200. But still, we should figure out how to predict where pieces of satellites are going to land. There’s far too much stuff floating above our heads for us to feel 100% safe.

And an expectation of “7:45 pm give or take 24 hours” is not particularly helpful, either…

Especially when a private corporation is saying 11:45, give or take three hours.

Jeez.

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